Government Debt Issuance Tracker
Angola’s Ministry of Finance (MINFIN) is the sole issuer of domestic government securities. Tracking issuance volumes — across instrument types, maturities, and currencies — is essential for understanding the government’s financing strategy and its implications for bond supply, yields, and the broader fiscal picture.
Issuance by Instrument Type
MINFIN’s domestic issuance program spans three core instrument categories:
| Instrument | Description | Typical Issuance Pattern |
|---|---|---|
| BT (Bilhetes do Tesouro) | Short-term discount bills, 91/182/364-day maturities | Weekly auctions, largest by volume |
| OTNR (Obrigacoes do Tesouro Nao Reajustaveis) | Fixed-rate kwanza bonds, 2-10 year maturities | Monthly auctions |
| OTX (Obrigacoes do Tesouro Indexadas) | USD and EUR-indexed bonds | Monthly or as needed |
BTs dominate gross issuance volume due to their short maturities and weekly rollover cycle. However, from a net financing perspective, OTNRs and OTX bonds represent the primary source of new medium- and long-term funding for the government.
Monthly Issuance Dynamics
Government issuance volumes are shaped by several factors:
- Budget execution cycle — Issuance typically ramps up in Q1 as MINFIN front-loads financing for the annual budget. Q2 and Q3 issuance stabilizes, while Q4 may see reduced supply if oil revenues have outperformed.
- Debt maturity profile — Months with large maturing obligations (see maturity calendar) require higher gross issuance to refinance existing debt, even if the government’s net borrowing need is unchanged.
- Oil revenue volatility — Lower Brent prices (currently around $74.50/bbl) increase the fiscal deficit and drive higher issuance volumes. The inverse applies when oil prices spike.
- FX considerations — Periods of kwanza pressure may shift the issuance mix toward USD-indexed OTX bonds, which are more attractive to foreign and domestic investors seeking currency protection.
Instrument Mix Trends
The composition of government issuance has evolved as Angola’s capital markets mature:
- Lengthening the maturity profile — MINFIN has gradually increased the share of medium- and long-term OTNRs in the issuance mix, reducing reliance on short-term BTs that create rollover risk.
- Growing OTX share — USD-indexed bond issuance has increased as the government leverages strong demand from investors seeking FX protection while maintaining debt service in local currency.
- Retail participation — The Portal do Investidor has channeled increasing retail savings into government securities, broadening the investor base beyond banks.
Total Debt Stock Context
Gross issuance must be understood in the context of Angola’s total public debt stock of $61.93 billion (debt-to-GDP ratio of 59.9%). The IMF classifies Angola at high risk of debt distress, making the trajectory of new issuance relative to GDP growth a critical metric for sustainability analysis.
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Total public debt | $61.93 billion |
| Debt-to-GDP ratio | 59.9% |
| External debt | $45.57 billion |
| Sovereign ratings | S&P B- / Moody’s B3 / Fitch B- |
| IMF assessment | High risk of debt distress |
Monitoring Issuance Trends
Investors can track issuance data through:
- MINFIN quarterly issuance calendar — Forward-looking schedule of planned auctions and indicative volumes.
- BODIVA daily bulletins — Auction results including volumes allotted, yields, and bid-to-cover ratios.
- BNA statistical releases — Monthly and quarterly data on outstanding government securities by instrument type.
For auction-specific analysis, see the demand/cover ratio tracker. For the full picture of outstanding obligations, see the outstanding stock analysis.