Angola vs Nigeria: Economy Comparison
Angola and Nigeria are sub-Saharan Africa’s two largest oil producers and share strikingly similar structural challenges: extreme oil dependence, high inflation, young and rapidly growing populations, underdeveloped banking sectors, and the imperative of economic diversification. Yet their scale, policy trajectories, and capital market maturity differ significantly, making this comparison essential for investors evaluating African oil-producing sovereigns.
Head-to-Head Comparison
| Indicator | Angola | Nigeria |
|---|---|---|
| GDP (nominal, 2024) | $115.2B | ~$363B |
| Population | 37.9M | ~220M |
| GDP per capita | ~$3,034 | ~$1,600 |
| Oil production | ~1.03M bpd | ~1.4M bpd |
| Oil % of exports | 90-95% | ~85% |
| Oil % of fiscal revenue | 50-60% | ~50% |
| Inflation | 15.7% (Dec 2025) | ~28% |
| Policy rate | 17.5% (cutting) | ~27.5% (hiking/holding) |
| Debt-to-GDP | 59.9% | ~40% |
| Debt service-to-revenue | 25-30% | ~65% |
| Credit-to-GDP | 14.63% | ~12% |
| FX regime | Managed float | Managed float |
| OPEC status | Exited Jan 2024 | Member |
| Credit rating (Moody’s) | B3 | Caa1 |
Scale and Demographics
Nigeria’s economy is roughly three times the size of Angola’s in nominal GDP terms, and its population is nearly six times larger. However, this scale advantage is diluted by Nigeria’s much lower per capita income (~$1,600 versus ~$3,034), reflecting the challenge of distributing oil wealth across a vastly larger population. Angola’s smaller demographic base means that at equivalent oil production levels, the fiscal and external impact per capita is substantially larger.
Both countries face a youth unemployment crisis: Angola’s exceeds 40%, while Nigeria’s is comparable. The demographic pressure is more acute in Nigeria simply due to the larger absolute numbers entering the labor force annually.
Oil Sector Comparison
| Oil Metric | Angola | Nigeria |
|---|---|---|
| Production (2025) | ~1.03M bpd | ~1.4M bpd |
| Peak production | 1.9M bpd (2008) | 2.5M bpd (2005) |
| Decline from peak | -46% | -44% |
| Primary operators | TotalEnergies, Chevron, ENI | Shell, TotalEnergies, ENI, ExxonMobil |
| OPEC membership | Exited 2024 | Active member |
| Offshore focus | Deep water (dominant) | Mix of onshore, shallow, deep water |
| Security risk | Low | High (Niger Delta) |
Angola holds a significant operational advantage over Nigeria in oil sector security. Nigeria’s onshore and shallow-water production is chronically disrupted by pipeline vandalism, oil theft, and militancy in the Niger Delta, costing an estimated 200,000-400,000 bpd in lost production. Angola’s purely offshore production profile eliminates these security risks.
Angola’s OPEC exit gives it production sovereignty that Nigeria, as a continuing OPEC member, does not enjoy. This freedom allows Angola to maximize output from new developments without quota constraints.
Monetary Policy Divergence
The two countries are at opposite ends of the monetary policy cycle:
- Angola: Three consecutive rate cuts from 20% to 17.5%, with inflation declining from 30%+ to 15.7%
- Nigeria: CBN has been aggressively hiking rates to combat inflation above 28%, with the policy rate at approximately 27.5%
This divergence reflects Angola’s earlier success in breaking the inflation cycle, potentially giving Angolan borrowers and bond markets a near-term advantage as lower rates support economic activity and asset prices.
Debt and Fiscal
Nigeria’s lower debt-to-GDP ratio (~40% versus Angola’s 59.9%) is misleading. Nigeria’s debt service-to-revenue ratio of approximately 65% is dramatically worse than Angola’s 25-30%, reflecting Nigeria’s weak revenue collection (tax-to-GDP of approximately 8%) and the federal government’s chronic inability to fund operations. Angola’s higher absolute debt level is supported by stronger oil-linked revenue mechanisms and a declining trajectory from the 119.1% peak.
Capital Markets
Nigeria’s capital market is substantially more developed:
- NSE (Nigerian Stock Exchange): 150+ listed companies, ~$30B market capitalization, active daily trading
- BODIVA: Angola’s exchange has fewer than 10 listed equities, limited liquidity, and nascent institutional participation
- Fixed income: Both countries have active government bond markets, though Nigeria’s is deeper and more liquid
For portfolio investors, Nigeria offers superior market access and liquidity, while Angola presents a frontier market opportunity with less competition and potentially higher alpha from information asymmetry.
Banking Sector
Both countries have shallow banking systems (credit-to-GDP of 14.63% for Angola versus approximately 12% for Nigeria), high NPL ratios, and concentrated market structures. Nigeria’s banking sector is larger in absolute terms and has more international connectivity (several Nigerian banks operate across West Africa), while Angola’s sector is more insular but potentially better capitalized relative to risk.
Investor Takeaway
Angola currently presents a more favorable macro trajectory than Nigeria: declining inflation, an easing central bank, falling debt ratios, and post-OPEC production freedom. Nigeria offers greater scale, liquidity, and capital market depth, but faces more severe fiscal and inflationary challenges. For sovereign bond investors, Angola’s tighter spreads relative to Nigeria reflect this differentiation. For equity investors, Nigeria’s deeper market offers more opportunities, while Angola’s BODIVA represents a longer-duration growth bet on capital market development. Both countries’ futures depend on whether oil revenues can be channeled into genuine economic diversification before the global energy transition erodes the value of their primary asset.