Angola vs African Peers: Economic Comparison
Benchmarking Angola’s economic performance against peer countries provides critical context for investors assessing relative value, risk, and growth potential. Angola’s peer group is defined by shared characteristics: oil dependence, sub-Saharan African geography, comparable income levels, and overlapping development challenges. This hub compares Angola across key dimensions with its most relevant comparators.
Peer Group Selection
| Country | GDP ($B, 2024 est.) | Population (M) | Oil Producer | Income Group |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Angola | $115.2 | 37.9 | Yes | Upper-middle |
| Nigeria | $363 | 220 | Yes | Lower-middle |
| Ghana | $76 | 33 | Yes | Lower-middle |
| Gabon | $21 | 2.4 | Yes | Upper-middle |
| Mozambique | $17 | 33 | Gas | Low |
| Cote d’Ivoire | $78 | 28 | No | Lower-middle |
| Tanzania | $79 | 63 | No | Low |
Comparative Indicators
| Indicator | Angola | Nigeria | Ghana | Gabon |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| GDP per capita | $3,034 | ~$1,600 | ~$2,300 | ~$8,600 |
| Inflation | 15.7% | ~28% | ~23% | ~3% |
| Oil production (M bpd) | 1.03 | ~1.4 | ~0.17 | ~0.19 |
| Debt-to-GDP | 59.9% | ~40% | ~75% | ~55% |
| Credit-to-GDP | 14.63% | ~12% | ~14% | ~18% |
| Policy rate | 17.5% | ~27.5% | ~29% | ~3.5% (BEAC) |
| FX regime | Managed float | Managed float | Floating | CFA peg |
Key Comparative Themes
Oil Dependence
Angola and Nigeria share the most direct comparability as sub-Saharan Africa’s two largest oil producers. Both face the challenge of economic diversification away from crude oil, though their approaches and starting points differ significantly. Gabon, while also oil-dependent, benefits from a much smaller population that translates commodity wealth into substantially higher per capita income.
Macroeconomic Stability
Angola’s recent disinflation from 30%+ to 15.7% compares favorably with Nigeria (still above 25%) and Ghana (above 20%), though all three lag the monetary stability of CFA franc zone countries like Gabon and Cote d’Ivoire. The BNA’s rate-cutting cycle positions Angola ahead of Nigeria (still tightening) in the monetary policy cycle.
Debt Dynamics
Angola’s debt-to-GDP at 59.9% is declining from a much higher peak (119.1% in 2020), while Ghana recently underwent sovereign debt restructuring. Nigeria’s lower debt-to-GDP ratio masks significant debt service-to-revenue stress. Gabon maintains moderate debt levels within the CFA zone’s fiscal framework.
Capital Market Development
Angola’s BODIVA is in its early development phase, with limited listings and liquidity compared to Nigeria’s well-established NSE or Ghana’s GSE. This gap represents both a constraint on current investment access and an opportunity for capital market growth.
Financial Sector Depth
At 14.63% credit-to-GDP, Angola’s banking sector is comparably shallow to Nigeria’s, and both lag significantly behind the continental average. Ghana and Cote d’Ivoire offer somewhat deeper financial intermediation, while Gabon benefits from the BEAC zone’s integrated banking framework.
Country Comparison Pages
For detailed bilateral comparisons, see:
- Angola vs Nigeria – The most detailed comparison, covering GDP, oil, banking, capital markets, and sovereign risk
Why Peer Comparison Matters
For international investors, peer comparison serves three functions:
- Relative valuation: Angolan sovereign bonds, equities, and real assets must be priced relative to alternatives in the same risk class
- Risk benchmarking: Understanding whether Angola’s fiscal, monetary, and external metrics are improving or deteriorating relative to peers informs portfolio allocation
- Reform momentum: Comparing policy trajectories (rate cycles, fiscal consolidation, diversification progress) identifies countries moving up or down the development curve
Angola’s position among its peers is broadly favorable on the current trajectory: declining inflation, falling debt ratios, a central bank in easing mode, and post-OPEC production sovereignty. However, lagging financial inclusion, extreme youth unemployment, and export concentration remain relative weaknesses that must be addressed to sustain convergence.