Angola Oil Production: Monthly Data and Trends
Angola produces approximately 1.03 million barrels per day (bpd) of crude oil, ranking as sub-Saharan Africa’s second-largest producer after Nigeria. This output, while still substantial, represents a dramatic decline from the 2008 peak of 1.9 million bpd – a 46% reduction driven by natural field decline, underinvestment, and the maturation of Angola’s prolific deep-water developments.
Production History
| Year | Production (M bpd, avg.) | Key Development |
|---|---|---|
| 2002 | 0.9 | Post-civil war, rising investment |
| 2008 | 1.9 | All-time peak, deep-water ramp-up |
| 2012 | 1.7 | Plateau, early decline signals |
| 2016 | 1.6 | Oil price crash, reduced investment |
| 2019 | 1.4 | Accelerating decline, OPEC cuts |
| 2020 | 1.2 | COVID-19, OPEC+ deep cuts |
| 2022 | 1.15 | Partial recovery, new projects |
| 2024 | 1.05 | Stabilization, CLOV/Begonia additions |
| 2025 | ~1.03 | Post-OPEC exit, production sovereignty |
Why Production Is Declining
Angola’s production decline is structural, driven by geological and economic factors:
- Mature field depletion: The major deep-water fields that drove the 2000s production boom – Girassol, Dalia, Kizomba, Greater Plutonio – are experiencing natural decline rates of 5-8% annually
- Insufficient replacement: New project additions have not kept pace with decline. While TotalEnergies’ CLOV Phase 3 and Begonia have added approximately 60,000 bpd, this only partially offsets annual declines of 80,000-100,000 bpd across the existing base
- Investment cycle lag: The oil price collapse of 2014-2016 and subsequent fiscal austerity led to a multi-year underinvestment in exploration and development that is now manifesting in declining output
- Technical complexity: Remaining reserves are in increasingly challenging ultra-deep water and pre-salt formations, requiring higher capital intensity per barrel
Current Production by Block
The bulk of production comes from a concentrated set of offshore blocks:
| Block | Operator | Production (approx. bpd) |
|---|---|---|
| Block 17/17-06 | TotalEnergies | 350,000-400,000 |
| Block 0 (Cabinda) | Chevron | 120,000-150,000 |
| Block 14 | Chevron | 80,000-100,000 |
| Block 15/15-06 | ENI | 100,000-120,000 |
| Block 18 | BP | 60,000-80,000 |
| Other blocks | Various | 150,000-200,000 |
New Projects and Upside
Several projects are contributing or expected to contribute incremental production:
- Begonia (Block 17/06): TotalEnergies-operated, ramping up to approximately 30,000 bpd peak. Subsea tieback to the Pazflor FPSO
- CLOV Phase 3: Infill wells adding approximately 30,000 bpd combined with Begonia
- Kwanza Basin exploration: Pre-salt plays analogous to Brazil’s Santos Basin. TotalEnergies and other IOCs are exploring, with results expected over the next 2-3 years
- Enhanced oil recovery (EOR): Water and gas injection programs in mature blocks to slow decline rates
- Cameia/Golfinho (Block 21): Sonangol-operated development in the Kwanza Basin pre-salt
OPEC Exit Impact
Angola’s withdrawal from OPEC in January 2024 removed external constraints on production. However, the binding constraint is now geological capacity rather than quotas – Angola cannot produce more than its fields deliver, regardless of regulatory freedom. The exit’s primary benefit is improved IOC investment confidence, as operators no longer face the risk of being forced to curtail output to meet OPEC targets.
Fiscal and Economic Implications
At current Brent prices of approximately $74.50/bbl, Angola’s 1.03 million bpd generates gross daily oil revenue of approximately $76.7 million, or roughly $28 billion annually. This revenue is the foundation of the national budget, FX reserves ($15.3 billion), and debt service capacity. Every 100,000 bpd change in production translates to approximately $2.7 billion in annual revenue at current prices.
Outlook
The production outlook through 2028 is flat-to-modestly-declining, with new projects expected to slow but not reverse the decline trend. The base case projects production in the 0.95-1.05 million bpd range through 2027, with meaningful upside dependent on Kwanza Basin exploration success and continued IOC investment. Breaking below 1.0 million bpd would be a psychologically and fiscally significant threshold, potentially pressuring the budget and debt sustainability metrics.