Quarterly GDP Growth Tracker
Angola’s Instituto Nacional de Estatistica (INE) publishes quarterly GDP data with a lag of approximately 90 days, providing the most granular view of economic momentum available to investors and policymakers. The quarterly series reveals the uneven, sector-dependent nature of growth in an economy transitioning from oil dependence toward broader-based expansion.
Annual GDP Growth Summary
| Year | Real GDP Growth | Key Driver |
|---|---|---|
| 2019 | -0.7% | FX liberalization adjustment |
| 2020 | -5.6% | COVID-19, oil crash |
| 2021 | +1.2% | Partial recovery |
| 2022 | +3.0% | Oil price surge, non-oil recovery |
| 2023 | +0.9% | Moderate oil prices, slow reform |
| 2024 | +4.4% | Broad-based recovery, services expansion |
| 2025F | +1.9% | Moderation, oil production stabilization |
The 4.4% growth recorded in 2024 marked the strongest expansion since 2014, driven by a combination of higher oil production, services sector dynamism, and the lagged effects of structural reforms. However, the 2025 forecast of just 1.9% signals a significant deceleration, reflecting both base effects and the constraints of an economy still heavily dependent on a single commodity.
Quarterly Growth Dynamics
Quarterly data typically shows significant volatility due to:
- Oil sector fluctuations: Planned maintenance shutdowns, new project ramp-ups (such as CLOV Phase 3), and OPEC-related production adjustments create quarter-to-quarter swings
- Agricultural seasonality: The agricultural sector (22.1% of GDP) exhibits strong seasonal patterns linked to planting and harvest cycles
- Government spending patterns: Budget execution tends to be back-loaded, with capital expenditure concentrated in Q3 and Q4
- Base effects: Year-over-year comparisons can be distorted by one-off events in the comparison quarter
Oil vs Non-Oil Growth Decomposition
The most analytically useful framework for understanding Angola’s quarterly GDP is the oil/non-oil decomposition:
Oil GDP (approximately 27-28% of total):
- Driven primarily by production volumes and new field development
- Current output of approximately 1.03 million bpd is stabilizing after years of decline from the 1.9 million bpd peak
- TotalEnergies’ CLOV Phase 3 and Begonia developments have added approximately 60,000 bpd, partially offsetting natural decline rates
- Post-OPEC exit (January 2024), Angola faces no external production constraints
Non-oil GDP (more than 70% of total):
- Services sector (41.1% of GDP) is the primary growth engine, led by telecoms, retail, and financial services
- Construction activity has recovered from the 2016-2020 slump
- Agriculture growth is constrained by productivity limitations despite favorable climate conditions
- Manufacturing remains small but growing under PRODESI import substitution policies
Growth Forecast Drivers
For 2025 and into 2026, quarterly growth will be shaped by:
- BNA rate cuts: The easing cycle from 20% to 17.5% should support credit-led non-oil growth, though transmission lags mean the impact will be felt primarily in H2 2025 and 2026
- Oil price sensitivity: At approximately $74.50/bbl, Brent pricing is supportive but below the levels that drove 2022’s outperformance
- Fiscal stance: The 2026 budget balance between consolidation and growth-supporting expenditure will influence government demand
- FDI flows: Investment in non-oil sectors, particularly energy, agriculture, and logistics, is needed to sustain diversification momentum
- Demographic pressure: With population growing at 3.2% per year, GDP growth below this rate implies declining per capita income
Data Sources and Methodology
INE publishes quarterly GDP estimates using the production approach, measuring value-added by sector. Data is reported at constant prices (base year 2002) and current prices. Revisions to earlier quarters are common, sometimes substantially altering the growth narrative. Angola X tracks both preliminary and revised figures to provide investors with the most accurate picture of economic momentum.
Investors should cross-reference quarterly GDP releases with monthly proxy indicators: oil production data (OPEC secondary sources), CPI releases (INE), and banking sector credit data (BNA) to build a real-time growth estimate.