GDP Per Capita: Angola vs Peers
Angola’s GDP per capita stands at approximately $3,034 (2024, IMF), placing it as an upper-middle-income country by World Bank classification but well below the living standards this label might suggest. The figure represents a partial recovery from the $2,400 trough recorded in 2020 but remains far below the $5,400 peak reached in 2014 when oil prices exceeded $100 per barrel.
Per Capita Income Trend
| Year | GDP Per Capita (USD, approx.) | Key Context |
|---|---|---|
| 2008 | $4,700 | Oil boom peak production |
| 2014 | $5,400 | Brent above $100/bbl, peak income |
| 2016 | $3,500 | Oil crash, kwanza devaluation begins |
| 2019 | $2,800 | FX liberalization, adjustment recession |
| 2020 | $2,400 | COVID-19, oil collapse, trough |
| 2022 | $2,700 | Recovery begins |
| 2024 | $3,034 | 4.4% GDP growth, stabilization |
The per capita trajectory illustrates the boom-bust nature of an oil-dependent economy. The 55% decline from 2014 peak to 2020 trough was devastating for household welfare, erasing a decade of income gains within six years.
Regional Peer Comparison
| Country | GDP Per Capita (USD, 2024 est.) | Population | Oil Producer |
|---|---|---|---|
| Botswana | ~$7,800 | 2.6M | No |
| South Africa | ~$6,200 | 60M | No |
| Gabon | ~$8,600 | 2.4M | Yes |
| Angola | ~$3,034 | 37.9M | Yes |
| Nigeria | ~$1,600 | 220M | Yes |
| Mozambique | ~$500 | 33M | Gas |
| DRC | ~$650 | 100M | Mining |
Angola ranks in the middle of its African peer group – significantly above Nigeria, Mozambique, and DRC but below Botswana, South Africa, and Gabon. The comparison with Gabon is particularly instructive: both are oil-dependent francophone/lusophone economies, but Gabon’s much smaller population (2.4 million versus 37.9 million) translates oil wealth into substantially higher per capita income.
Why Per Capita Income Understates and Overstates
Overstates actual welfare:
- Extreme inequality: oil wealth is concentrated among a small elite, with the Gini coefficient among the highest globally
- Urban-rural divide: Luanda accounts for a disproportionate share of economic activity while rural provinces remain impoverished
- Official unemployment at 14% masks the reality of 70-80% informal employment with very low wages
- Youth unemployment exceeding 40% means a generation is excluded from the formal economy
Understates economic activity:
- The informal sector (estimated at 40-50% of true GDP) is inadequately captured in national accounts
- Subsistence agriculture provides food security for millions but is poorly measured
- Remittance flows and cross-border trade in border provinces are underreported
The Demographic Challenge
Angola’s per capita income faces a structural headwind: the population is growing at approximately 3.2% annually, meaning GDP must grow at least 3.2% just to maintain current per capita levels. With a median age of 16.7 and approximately 800,000 new labor force entrants per year, the economy must generate sustained above-trend growth or per capita income will stagnate.
The IMF projects Angola’s GDP per capita to reach approximately $3,200-3,400 by 2027, a gradual recovery but still well below the 2014 peak. Returning to $5,000+ per capita would require either significantly higher oil prices or a successful economic diversification that generates non-oil growth rates above 6-7%.
Investor Implications
Per capita income is a critical determinant of domestic consumption demand, banking sector addressable market, and insurance penetration. At $3,034, Angola sits at a level where consumer markets are emerging but remain constrained by purchasing power. Sectors targeting the growing urban middle class in Luanda – retail, telecoms, financial services – offer the most immediate opportunity, while mass-market expansion awaits broader income growth.