BNA Interest Rate Decision History
The Banco Nacional de Angola (BNA) has undertaken a decisive monetary easing cycle beginning in 2025, cutting its benchmark policy rate (taxa BNA) three consecutive times after maintaining a restrictive 20% stance through most of 2024. The current rate of 17.5%, effective January 14, 2026, represents the lowest policy rate since the tightening cycle began in response to the post-2022 inflation surge.
Rate Decision Timeline
| Date | Decision | New Rate | Change | Rationale |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 14, 2026 | Cut | 17.5% | -100 bps | Inflation at 15.7%, continued disinflation confidence |
| Oct 2025 | Cut | 18.5% | -100 bps | Inflation declining, growth supportive |
| Jul 2025 | Cut | 19.5% | -50 bps | First cut; inflation trajectory confirmed |
| 2024 (full year) | Hold | 20.0% | – | Inflation above 25%, FX pressures |
| Late 2023 | Hike | 20.0% | +200 bps | Inflation surge, kwanza depreciation |
| Mid-2023 | Hold | 18.0% | – | Monitoring inflation dynamics |
Rationale Behind the Easing Cycle
The BNA’s pivot from hold to cut in mid-2025 was driven by the confluence of several factors:
Inflation trajectory: Consumer price inflation peaked above 30% year-over-year in mid-2024, driven by currency pass-through effects, fuel subsidy adjustments, and global food price pressures. By the time of the first cut in July 2025, the YoY rate had declined to approximately 22%, and the monthly sequential trend confirmed sustained deceleration. By December 2025, headline inflation had reached 15.7%.
Exchange rate stability: The USD/AOA rate stabilized near the 914.60 level under the managed float regime, providing the BNA with confidence that rate cuts would not trigger disorderly depreciation. FX reserves at $15.3 billion (~5 months of import cover) provided an additional buffer.
Fiscal consolidation: The government’s budget discipline reduced domestic borrowing pressure, complementing the BNA’s monetary easing by preventing fiscal-monetary conflict.
Growth support: With GDP growth at 4.4% in 2024 but the 2025 forecast moderating to 1.9%, the BNA weighed the need to support non-oil economic activity through lower financing costs.
Acceleration of Cuts
The initial 50 basis point cut in July 2025 was followed by two larger 100 basis point reductions, reflecting the MPC’s growing confidence in the disinflation path. The acceleration signals that the BNA views the current real policy rate (approximately 180 basis points above inflation) as sufficiently restrictive and sees room for further normalization.
Historical Context
Angola’s monetary policy has historically been reactive rather than forward-looking, constrained by the dominance of oil revenues in the economy and the BNA’s dual mandate of price stability and exchange rate management. The current cycle represents an increasingly sophisticated, data-dependent approach:
- 2015-2017: Rates held at 16% despite rising inflation, reflecting limited policy independence
- 2017-2019: Gradual tightening as the kwanza devaluation fed through to prices
- 2020-2022: Emergency responses to COVID-19 and oil price volatility
- 2023-2024: Aggressive tightening to anchor expectations during the inflation surge
- 2025-2026: Measured easing as inflation credibility builds
What to Watch
Market participants should monitor several indicators ahead of each MPC meeting:
- Monthly INE CPI releases (published mid-month for prior month)
- BNA FX auction results and reserve movements
- Government bond auction yields as a market-implied rate signal
- Quarterly GDP data from INE
The outlook consensus points toward further cuts to 16.0% by end-2026, contingent on inflation continuing its downward trajectory toward the 12-13% range.