BNA Policy Rate Outlook
The Banco Nacional de Angola (BNA) has executed three consecutive rate cuts since mid-2025, bringing the policy rate from its 20% peak down to 17.5% as of January 14, 2026. With inflation on a sustained downward trajectory and the external position stabilizing, the central bank is widely expected to continue its easing cycle through 2026 – though the pace and magnitude remain subject to oil price and FX developments.
Consensus Forecasts
| Source | End-2026 Rate Forecast | Implied Cuts |
|---|---|---|
| Economist Intelligence Unit (EIU) | 16.0% | 150 bps from current |
| Market consensus range | 15.5-16.5% | 100-200 bps |
| Angola X base case | 16.0% | 150 bps (3 x 50 bps) |
The EIU projects the BNA will cut rates by a further 150 basis points through 2026, reaching 16.0% by year-end. This trajectory assumes continued disinflation toward 12-13% by end-2026, stable oil production near 1.03 million barrels per day, and Brent crude remaining in the $70-80 per barrel range.
Key Variables for the Rate Path
Supportive of further cuts:
- Inflation declining steadily: 15.7% YoY in December 2025, down from over 30% at mid-2024 peak
- Positive real policy rate of approximately 180 basis points provides cushion for easing
- Fiscal consolidation reducing government borrowing pressure on the domestic market
- Stable FX reserves at $15.3 billion (~5 months import cover)
Risks to the dovish outlook:
- Oil price decline below $65/bbl would pressure the kwanza and force the BNA to prioritize FX stability over growth
- Food price shocks (Angola imports approximately 80% of food) could reverse the disinflation trend
- Global monetary tightening or dollar strengthening could trigger capital outflows
- Debt service obligations peaking in 2028-2029 may constrain fiscal flexibility
Meeting Schedule and Decision Framework
The BNA’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) meets approximately every two months. The committee evaluates a data-dependent framework centered on:
- Inflation dynamics: Current and projected CPI trajectory relative to the BNA’s implicit target range
- Exchange rate stability: USD/AOA movements and FX reserve adequacy
- Credit conditions: Private-sector credit growth and banking system liquidity
- External balance: Trade balance, current account, and capital flows
- Fiscal stance: Government borrowing requirements and budget execution
Market Implications
The easing cycle has significant implications across Angolan asset classes:
- Government bonds: Further rate cuts imply capital gains for holders of long-duration kwanza bonds on BODIVA
- Banking sector: Margin compression on government securities may accelerate credit expansion to the private sector
- Equities: Lower discount rates support valuations, particularly for rate-sensitive financial stocks
- FX: Managed easing should be kwanza-neutral if conducted alongside stable reserves, but aggressive cuts could pressure the USD/AOA rate
The BNA’s credibility hinges on maintaining a gradual, data-driven approach. Market participants should monitor monthly INE inflation prints and quarterly GDP data as the primary signals for the pace of easing.