Government Debt Repayment Schedule
Angola’s debt repayment schedule maps the government’s principal amortization obligations across all debt categories: domestic securities (BTs, OTNRs, OTX), Eurobonds, bilateral loans, and multilateral credit. For bond investors, this schedule reveals the government’s refinancing pressure points and helps assess the sustainability of debt service in the context of Angola’s oil-dependent revenue base.
Total Debt Service Context
Angola’s total public debt stands at $61.93 billion (debt-to-GDP ratio of 59.9%), with external debt of $45.57 billion accounting for 73.6% of the total. Debt service — the combination of principal repayments and interest payments — represents a significant claim on government revenues.
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Total public debt | $61.93 billion |
| External debt | $45.57 billion |
| Sovereign ratings | S&P B- / Moody’s B3 / Fitch B- |
| IMF classification | High risk of debt distress |
| Primary revenue driver | Crude oil (~$74.50/bbl Brent) |
Repayment Schedule by Debt Category
Domestic Securities — Continuous Amortization
Domestic government securities generate ongoing repayment obligations:
- BTs (91/182/364-day) — Weekly maturities create a continuous amortization stream. BT principal is typically rolled into new issuance through the auction calendar, making net amortization close to zero unless MINFIN deliberately reduces the BT stock.
- OTNRs (2-10 year) — Bullet maturities (principal repaid in full at maturity) create periodic lumpy payments. The distribution depends on historical issuance patterns and the maturity mix of the outstanding stock.
- OTX (USD/EUR-indexed) — Similar bullet structure to OTNRs, but with principal amounts indexed to the foreign currency, meaning the kwanza cost of repayment rises if the currency depreciates.
External Debt — Structured Amortization
External debt follows more varied amortization structures:
| Creditor Type | Share of External | Amortization Structure |
|---|---|---|
| Commercial (incl. China) | 42.18% | Typically amortizing (periodic principal payments) |
| Multilateral (IMF, WB, AfDB) | 19.81% | Grace periods followed by amortization |
| Eurobonds | 19.67% | Bullet maturity (full principal at maturity) |
| Other bilateral | Remainder | Varies by agreement |
Eurobond Maturity Wall — 2028-2029
The most significant near-term refinancing event is the concentration of Eurobond maturities in 2028-2029. These bullet-maturity instruments require full principal repayment on the maturity date, creating a concentrated demand on government finances or requiring successful refinancing in international capital markets.
Key considerations for the Eurobond maturity wall:
- Market access — Angola must maintain sufficient creditworthiness to issue new Eurobonds at reasonable rates to refinance maturing ones. Current Eurobond yields of 7-9% represent the market’s assessment of this risk.
- Reserve accumulation — Alternatively, the government can use foreign exchange reserves to repay maturing Eurobonds without refinancing, though this depletes the reserve buffer.
- Oil price sensitivity — Higher Brent crude prices generate additional USD revenue that supports both refinancing capacity and reserve accumulation.
- Liability management — MINFIN could conduct buybacks or exchange offers before the maturity date to smooth the repayment profile.
Chinese Bilateral Debt — Oil-Linked Amortization
A distinctive feature of Angola’s debt profile is the oil-collateralized structure of much of the Chinese bilateral lending. Principal repayments on these facilities are linked to oil delivery commitments, meaning:
- Amortization occurs through dedicated oil shipments valued at market prices
- Rising oil prices accelerate the effective repayment rate (fewer barrels needed per dollar of debt)
- Falling oil prices slow repayment and may require additional shipments
Debt Service and Fiscal Capacity
The government’s ability to meet its repayment schedule depends on:
- Oil revenues — The dominant revenue source, directly tied to Brent crude prices and production volumes (~1.1 million barrels per day)
- Non-oil revenues — Growing but still insufficient to cover debt service independently
- Exchange rate — Kwanza depreciation increases the local currency cost of servicing foreign-denominated debt
- BNA policy rate — At 17.5%, high domestic interest rates make kwanza-denominated debt expensive to service (18-22% yields on OTNRs)
Monitoring the Repayment Schedule
Investors should track:
- MINFIN debt reports — Published quarterly with updated amortization schedules
- BNA balance of payments data — Captures external debt service flows
- Oil price and production trends — The primary variable for fiscal capacity
- Eurobond secondary market pricing — Reflects market assessment of refinancing risk
For the bond maturity calendar, see maturity calendar. For the complete debt composition analysis, see debt analysis.