Angola Public Debt Stock Analysis
Angola’s total public debt stands at $61.93 billion, representing a debt-to-GDP ratio of 59.9%. While this ratio has declined from its peak above 120% in 2020 (driven by kwanza depreciation during the oil price crash), the IMF continues to classify Angola at high risk of debt distress. For fixed income investors, understanding the composition, maturity profile, and currency breakdown of this debt stock is fundamental to assessing credit risk and identifying value.
Debt Composition Overview
| Category | Amount | Share of Total |
|---|---|---|
| Total public debt | $61.93B | 100% |
| External debt | $45.57B | 73.6% |
| Domestic debt | ~$16.36B | 26.4% |
Angola’s debt structure is heavily weighted toward external obligations, which creates material FX risk for debt service given that government revenues are predominantly in kwanza (aside from oil receipts priced in USD).
External Debt Breakdown
| Creditor Type | Share of External Debt |
|---|---|
| Commercial creditors | 42.18% |
| Multilateral institutions | 19.81% |
| Eurobonds | 19.67% |
| Bilateral (incl. China) | Remainder |
- Commercial creditors — The largest segment, dominated by Chinese commercial lending, much of which is collateralized against future oil deliveries.
- Multilateral institutions — IMF, World Bank, and African Development Bank lending, typically on concessional terms.
- Eurobonds — Angola has outstanding Eurobonds trading in international markets with USD-denominated yields in the 7-9% range. These instruments face a significant maturity wall in 2028-2029.
Maturity Profile and Rollover Risk
The maturity structure of Angola’s debt presents concentrated refinancing risk:
- Short-term domestic debt — BTs (91/182/364-day) require continuous rollover through weekly auctions. While this creates constant refinancing activity, strong domestic bank demand has historically absorbed supply.
- Medium-term domestic debt — OTNRs (2-10 year) provide more stable financing but carry higher coupon costs in the 18-22% range.
- Eurobond maturity wall — The 2028-2029 period presents the most significant external refinancing challenge, with multiple Eurobond maturities falling due within a short window.
- Chinese bilateral debt — Amortization schedules for oil-backed Chinese loans are linked to commodity delivery, adding complexity to the repayment timeline.
Sustainability Metrics
| Metric | Current Value | Assessment |
|---|---|---|
| Debt-to-GDP | 59.9% | Moderate, improved from peak |
| External debt service / Revenue | Elevated | Vulnerable to oil price shocks |
| Sovereign ratings | S&P B- / Moody’s B3 / Fitch B- | Deep sub-investment grade |
| IMF risk classification | High risk of debt distress | Constrains borrowing capacity |
Key Risk Factors
- Oil price dependence — Brent crude (currently ~$74.50/bbl) drives both government revenue and the kwanza exchange rate (USD/AOA 914.60). A sustained decline below $60/bbl would sharply deteriorate debt metrics.
- Currency depreciation — Since 73.6% of debt is externally denominated, kwanza weakness mechanically increases the debt-to-GDP ratio.
- Interest rate environment — High domestic borrowing costs (18-22% for OTNRs) make the domestic debt stock expensive to service, consuming a significant share of non-oil revenues.
- Refinancing concentration — The Eurobond maturity wall of 2028-2029 requires either successful rollover in international markets or accumulation of reserves for repayment.
For a breakdown of domestic versus external obligations, see domestic vs external debt. For upcoming principal repayments, consult the repayment schedule.