The Banco Nacional de Angola (BNA) reference rate for the US dollar against the Angolan kwanza (kwanza angolano) stands at approximately 914.60 AOA per dollar as of February 2026 – a level that reflects nearly a decade of wrenching adjustment from the artificial stability of the fixed-peg era. For investors in Angolan government bonds and equities, the USD/AOA rate is the single most consequential variable in determining hard-currency total returns, and its trajectory encodes virtually every macro story that matters: oil prices, central bank credibility, fiscal discipline, and capital account openness.
The Fixed-Peg Era (Pre-2018)
For most of its post-independence history, Angola operated a fixed exchange rate regime (regime de câmbio fixo). By the mid-2010s, the official rate was pegged at approximately 165 AOA/USD, a level that bore almost no relation to underlying economic fundamentals. With Brent crude having collapsed from above $110/bbl in mid-2014 to below $30 in early 2016, the BNA’s dollar reserves were haemorrhaging at an unsustainable pace. Foreign companies reported multi-month waits to repatriate dividends through official channels, and the parallel market rate ballooned to 500-600 AOA/USD – a premium exceeding 150% over the official rate.
The peg survived as long as it did for political rather than economic reasons. The transition from President dos Santos to President Lourenço in September 2017 created the political space for a new approach.
Managed Devaluation and Liberalization (2018-2019)
The adjustment came in two phases. In January 2018, the BNA executed a managed devaluation (desvalorização), moving the reference rate from 166 to approximately 253 AOA/USD – a 34% adjustment in a single step. This closed part of the gap with reality, but the parallel premium remained stubbornly wide at 50-80%.
The decisive break came in October 2019, when the BNA adopted a managed float (regime cambial flutuante administrado) as a core conditionality of Angola’s $3.7 billion Extended Fund Facility (EFF) with the IMF, approved in December 2018. Under the new regime, the exchange rate would be determined primarily by supply and demand at BNA foreign exchange auctions, with the central bank intervening only to smooth excessive volatility rather than to defend a target level.
Depreciation Path: 2019-2024
The shift to market pricing triggered rapid depreciation as the kwanza found its true level:
| Year | Year-End Rate (AOA/USD) | Annual Change |
|---|---|---|
| 2017 (peg) | 166 | – |
| 2018 | 253 | -34.4% (devaluation) |
| 2019 | 462 | -45.2% |
| 2020 | 655 | -29.5% |
| 2021 | 638 | +2.7% (appreciation) |
| 2022 | 460 | +38.7% (appreciation) |
| 2023 | 829 | -39.2% |
| 2024 | 912 | -9.12% |
| Feb 2026 | ~914.60 | Broadly stable |
Two episodes stand out. The 2022 appreciation – exceptional among Sub-Saharan African currencies – was driven by a surge in Brent crude above $100/bbl following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, which flooded the BNA with dollar inflows and allowed aggressive reserve accumulation. The sharp 2023 reversal reflected oil price moderation, a widening fiscal deficit, and global dollar strength as the Federal Reserve maintained restrictive monetary policy.
Key Drivers
Oil prices. Petroleum accounts for over 90% of Angola’s export revenue and roughly 60% of fiscal receipts. Empirically, a sustained $10/bbl move in Brent translates to approximately 40-60 AOA/USD in exchange rate impact over a 6-12 month horizon. The oil-FX correlation page provides detailed regression analysis.
BNA auction volumes. The supply of dollars at twice-weekly BNA auctions is the proximate determinant of the official rate. When auction supply is ample – typically during periods of high oil revenue – the rate stabilises or appreciates. When the BNA restricts supply, whether due to low reserves or competing fiscal demands for dollar revenue, the rate depreciates and the parallel market premium widens.
Monetary policy. The BNA base rate (taxa BNA) stands at 17.5% as of February 2026. Higher domestic rates support the kwanza by making kwanza-denominated carry trades attractive to foreign portfolio investors, provided the rate of depreciation remains below the interest rate differential.
Parallel market dynamics. The informal market premium, now compressed to under 5%, serves as a real-time indicator of FX market stress. Historically, premium spikes above 20% have preceded official-rate adjustments within 3-6 months.
Inflation. Consumer price inflation (Índice de Preços ao Consumidor) stood at 15.7% year-on-year in January 2026, down from peaks above 25% in 2021. Persistent inflation erodes the kwanza’s purchasing power and exerts structural depreciation pressure over time through the real effective exchange rate channel.
Current Equilibrium
The 912-919 AOA/USD trading band through early 2026 represents arguably the most stable period since the float was adopted. Several factors support this equilibrium: Brent crude trading in the $70-80/bbl range provides steady dollar inflows; international reserves at $15.31 billion (7.87 months of import cover) give the BNA ample capacity to smooth volatility; and the 17.5% policy rate maintains a positive real interest rate that supports portfolio flows.
The parallel market premium below 5% confirms that the official rate is broadly market-clearing rather than administratively suppressed. This is a structurally different environment from the pre-2019 era, when a 150%+ premium signalled profound misalignment.
Outlook and Risks
The base case is continued stability in the 900-950 range through 2026, with gradual depreciation of 5-8% on an annualised basis reflecting the inflation differential between Angola and its major trading partners. This scenario is contingent on Brent crude remaining above $65/bbl and the BNA maintaining its current policy framework.
Downside risks include a sustained oil price decline below $60/bbl, which would compress dollar auction supply and force a step-devaluation; a fiscal deterioration ahead of the 2027 general elections; and any erosion in BNA independence that could undermine the managed-float framework.
Upside risks include stronger-than-expected oil production from new deepwater blocks, successful non-oil export diversification reducing structural dollar dependency, and further compression in the inflation rate that would improve the real exchange rate outlook.
For practical hedging strategies against USD/AOA volatility, see our FX hedging guide.