Real GDP growth surged to an estimated 4.4% in 2024 — the strongest annual expansion in a decade — before the IMF’s December 2025 Article IV consultation revised the 2025 forecast downward to 1.9%, trimming 20 basis points from the 2.1% projected in the October World Economic Outlook. The deceleration underscores a persistent structural constraint: Angola’s growth trajectory remains tethered to upstream oil dynamics even as non-oil sectors gradually accumulate weight.

Nominal Output and Scale

Angola’s Produto Interno Bruto (PIB) reached $115.2 billion in nominal terms for 2024, according to the IMF Article IV report published in December 2025. This positions Angola as Sub-Saharan Africa’s third-largest economy behind Nigeria ($363B) and South Africa ($373B), and the largest lusophone economy in Africa. At current exchange rates, the Angolan economy is roughly equivalent in size to Ethiopia’s and approximately twice the GDP of neighbouring Democratic Republic of Congo.

Per capita GDP stood at $3,034 in 2024, a figure that masks extreme inequality. Angola’s Gini coefficient exceeds 0.50, placing it among the most unequal societies globally. Luanda province alone generates an estimated 65-70% of formal economic activity, while several interior provinces operate largely on subsistence agriculture. The per capita figure has recovered from its 2020 nadir of approximately $2,400 but remains well below the 2014 peak of $5,400, when dollar-denominated GDP was inflated by both elevated oil prices and a significantly overvalued kwanza.

Historical Growth Trajectory

Angola’s growth record over the past seven years tells a story of volatility driven by oil, pandemic disruption, and tentative recovery:

Source: IMF Article IV (Dec 2025), World Economic Outlook (Oct 2025).

The 2024 acceleration was notable for its composition. While oil GDP expanded modestly on the back of stable production around 1.1 million bpd, the non-oil economy — led by construction, agriculture, and financial services — grew at an estimated 5-6%, the fastest clip since the pre-2014 boom years. This contributed to non-oil sectors accounting for over 70% of total GDP for the first time.

The 2019-2020 contraction was severe. Cumulative real GDP fell approximately 4.2% over those two years, compounding a recession that had persisted intermittently since 2015. The oil price collapse of 2014-2016 triggered the initial downturn, but structural rigidities — a fixed exchange rate, state enterprise dominance, and import dependency — prolonged the pain. President Joao Lourenco’s reform program, launched in 2018, began to yield results only from 2021 onward.

Sectoral Composition

The economy’s sectoral balance has shifted materially over the past decade, though the transformation is less dramatic than headline GDP shares suggest:

Source: World Bank national accounts data, 2024.

Within industry, oil and gas has declined from roughly 50% of GDP in 2014 to approximately 28% in 2024. This compression is partly genuine — non-oil sectors have expanded in real terms — and partly mechanical: the kwanza’s depreciation from AOA 98/USD (2014) to roughly AOA 900/USD (2025) inflates local-currency non-oil GDP when converted to dollars, flattering the diversification narrative. When measured by export composition, the picture is starker: crude oil and refined products still constitute over 90% of merchandise exports, indicating that Angola remains a functionally mono-commodity exporter.

Agriculture’s 22.1% GDP share is driven by subsistence farming rather than commercial agribusiness. Angola imports approximately 80% of its food, and the agricultural sector’s productivity remains constrained by poor rural infrastructure, limited mechanization, and unresolved land tenure issues. The Plano Nacional de Desenvolvimento (PND 2023-2027) allocates significant capital expenditure to irrigation schemes and the Lobito Corridor agricultural belt, but these projects are multi-year in nature.

Services sector growth is concentrated in telecommunications (driven by Unitel and Angola Telecom), banking (where the top five banks control over 70% of assets), and wholesale/retail trade. The Bolsa de Divida e Valores de Angola (BODIVA) has expanded capital markets activity, though total market capitalization remains under $2 billion.

Non-Oil Growth Dynamics

The non-oil economy is the critical variable for long-term growth projections. Since 2021, non-oil real GDP growth has consistently outpaced headline GDP, reflecting the reform program’s emphasis on:

Construction and infrastructure. The government’s infrastructure spending — particularly on roads, the Lobito Corridor railway, and housing — has driven construction sector growth above 7% annually. Chinese-financed projects continue to dominate, though multilateral financing from the African Development Bank and World Bank is increasing.

Financial services. Deepening of the bond markets through BODIVA, combined with the BNA’s financial inclusion initiatives, has expanded credit to the private sector. The banking sector’s loan-to-GDP ratio remains low by regional standards (approximately 15-18%), suggesting significant room for credit-driven growth.

Agriculture. Despite structural constraints, agricultural output has expanded at 3-5% annually, supported by the Aldeia Nova irrigation scheme in Kwanza Sul and smallholder extension programs. Angola’s arable land potential — an estimated 35 million hectares, of which only 5-8 million are cultivated — represents the country’s most significant long-term diversification opportunity.

Telecommunications and digital services. Mobile penetration has reached approximately 45%, and the government’s Digital Angola 2030 program targets 80% internet coverage. The pending Unitel IPO could catalyze private investment in the sector.

IMF and Multilateral Forecasts

The IMF’s December 2025 Article IV consultation provides the most authoritative near-term outlook:

The Fund’s medium-term scenario assumes Brent crude averaging $73-78/bbl, oil production stabilizing around 1.0-1.1 million bpd, and non-oil growth sustained at 3.5-4.5%. The World Bank’s assessment is broadly consistent, projecting 2.5-3.5% growth through 2028.

Both institutions flag the same downside risks: a sustained oil price downturn below $60/bbl (which would blow a hole in the fiscal accounts and force pro-cyclical spending cuts), failure to execute on the ProPriv privatization program (which would discourage private investment), and the demographic challenge — Angola’s population is growing at 3.1% per year, meaning that per capita income growth requires headline GDP growth above 3% just to keep pace.

Key Risks and Structural Constraints

Oil dependency persistence. Despite the declining GDP share, oil remains the marginal determinant of Angola’s growth rate. A $10/bbl move in Brent oil prices shifts real GDP growth by an estimated 0.5-0.8 percentage points through direct production effects and indirect fiscal channels.

Human capital deficit. Angola ranks 148th of 191 countries on the UNDP Human Development Index. Adult literacy is approximately 72%, and the tertiary education enrollment rate is below 10%. These constraints limit productivity growth in services and manufacturing.

Infrastructure bottlenecks. Despite billions in capital spending, Angola’s infrastructure — particularly electricity generation (installed capacity approximately 5,700 MW, of which roughly 60% is hydroelectric) and port logistics — remains a binding constraint on non-oil growth. The Lobito Corridor, if completed on schedule, could unlock agricultural and mineral exports from Angola’s interior and the broader trade potential with the DRC and Zambia.

Institutional environment. Angola ranks 116th of 180 countries on Transparency International’s Corruption Perceptions Index. While the Lourenco administration has made progress on governance reforms, the business environment remains challenging for foreign and domestic private investors alike.